Polymarket Begins US Rollout After CFTC Reversal

Newsletter Issue #685

Newsletter Issue #685

Polymarket Begins US Rollout After CFTC Reversal

GM. Polymarket began its long-awaited US rollout after winning CFTC approval, reopening access for domestic users and reigniting competition with Kalshi in regulated prediction markets.

Meanwhile, the UK formally recognized crypto as property, American Bitcoin shares steadied post-unlock, and Kalshi’s Luana Lopes Lara became the youngest female billionaire in finance.

Markets, milestones, and momentum continue dominating crypto. 👇

Polymarket Begins US Rollout After CFTC Reversal

Polymarket began granting access to US waitlisted users on Wednesday as it returned domestically following a 2022 CFTC enforcement action. The rollout follows its $112 billion QCX acquisition and CFTC approval under an Amended Order of Designation enabling derivatives activity.

The CFTC pivoted after losing its 2024 political contract case against Kalshi, enabling expanded event derivatives under existing rules. Polymarket will initially emphasize sports markets in its US platform before expanding coverage to additional categories as regulators oversee product growth.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi pursued sports distribution deals with the National Hockey League and Professional Pickleball Association. Polymarket secured roles with PrizePicks and DraftKings while Kalshi partnered with Robinhood, which has represented portions of Kalshi’s trading volume.

Kalshi posted $5.81 billion in October volume compared to Polymarket’s $3.7 billion as competition intensified across the prediction market sector. Polymarket is targeting a valuation of $15 billion after raising $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange while adding Donald Trump Jr.

UK Formally Recognizes Crypto Assets as Property

UK lawmakers approved legislation granting digital assets full property status to strengthen ownership rights and modernize legal treatment. Officials said the bill covers theft disputes, inheritance claims, and bankruptcy actions involving crypto held across digital wallets. Estimates indicate between 12% and 24% of UK residents hold crypto assets benefiting from improved protections.

Legal groups said statutory clarity replaces fragmented case law and aligns courts with recommendations issued by the Law Commission. The framework applies in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland while allowing courts flexibility as technologies evolve. Additional measures require platforms to collect user data beginning January 1 to raise $417 million in projected tax revenue.

American Bitcoin Shares Stabilize After Unlock Event

American Bitcoin shares rebounded slightly after a major unlock allowed early investors to realize sizeable private placement gains. Prices fell from $3.60 to $1.75 before recovering near $2.33 while remaining 35% below Monday’s close. Executives said 159 million shares sold for $220 million are now worth roughly $397 million.

The firm merged earlier this year with Hut8 and continues progressing toward its public listing through Gryphon. Leadership said upcoming unlocks may create volatility even as operational metrics improve across mining output and revenue. Third-quarter results showed $64 million in revenue, $3.5 million profit, and 4,004 Bitcoin worth nearly $370 million.

Kalshi Cofounder Becomes Youngest Female Billionaire

Kalshi cofounder Luana Lopes Lara reached billionaire status after a $1 billion raise valued the firm at $11 billion. The round included top crypto VCs like Paradigm, Sequoia, a16z, and Y Combinator, marking one of the largest investments in prediction markets. Lopes Lara and cofounder Tarek Mansour both reached the milestone at age 29.

Rival Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan became a billionaire earlier following ICE’s $2 billion commitment at an $8 billion valuation. Kalshi operates regulated event contracts registered with the CFTC while Polymarket uses USDC on decentralized infrastructure. The sector’s expansion includes CNN integrating Kalshi data across programming as cumulative volumes exceed $45 billion.

Data of the day

Daily liquidations nearly tripled this cycle as futures leverage increased sharply across major exchanges, according to Glassnode. Average wipeouts climbed from $28 million long and $15 million short to $68 million and $45 million respectively. The October 10 drawdown erased $640 million per hour as Bitcoin fell from $121,000 to $102,000.

Open interest reached a record $67.9 billion as perpetuals drove more than 90% of futures volume. Spot activity doubled to an $8 billion to $22 billion range with hourly peaks reaching $7.3 billion. Bitcoin processed $6.9 trillion in 90-day settlement volume while ETFs and treasuries absorbed 6.7 million BTC overall.

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